- Dentsu released a revised global promoting forecast and now expects ad spend to grow 5% in 2024, up from 4.6% in a previous forecast, for a complete of $754.4 billion worldwide, the promoting holding company said in a press release.
- Following a robust start to the yr, spend through the remaining months is predicted to be fueled by a buoyant digital promoting market, the Olympics and the U.S. election.
- Digital promoting spending is predicted to increase by 7.4% and capture 59.6% of the market this yr. Double-digit spend growth in the retail media and paid social categories, up 32% and 13.7% year-over-year, respectively, will help drive overall digital growth.
Adjusted for inflation, overall ad-spending growth is projected at 2.6% in 2024, as prices remain high, especially for TV and digital video formats, though there are signs that prices are coming down. Dentsu revising up its forecast to 5% growth in 2024 would see the yr outstripping 2023’s 3.3% growth and beating the pace of overall economic growth by 1.8 percentage points.
Reasons for the upward revision include that the yr began at a faster pace than previously anticipated, and the second half of the yr, which may also include the Summer 2024 Olympics in addition to the U.S. presidential election, will draw much more attention, according to Will Swayne, Dentsu’s global president of media. The U.S. presidential election alone is predicted to account for roughly a 3rd ($11 billion) of incremental ad spending in 2024.
Digital is projected to be the fastest-growing channel, accounting for $449.3 billion in total ad spending, fueled by increases in retail media (up 32%), paid social (up $13.7%) and programmatic (10.9%) channels. Paid search and online video should see strong growth in addition to 7.7% and 6.7%, respectively.
Television spending is on pace for more modest growth of two.6%. The growth will largely be driven by connected TV spending (up 24.2% year-over-year) as streaming platforms ramp up ad-supported offerings. Broadcast television is predicted to decline 0.4% year-over-year.
Out-of-home and cinema spending could see modest growth of 4.2% and 4.8%, respectively. However, audio is probably going to remain relatively flat with a 0.4% year-over-year increase. The only category forecast to see a big decline is print, with an expected drop of two.6%.
By region, the Americas is predicted to experience the fastest growth, up 5.9% year-over-year (vs. 2.2% in 2023). Asia-Pacific could see 4.2% growth, led by increases in China and India (4.8% and 6.8%, respectively). EMEA is predicted to grow 4%, with forecasts revised up for its three biggest markets: the United Kingdom (up 6%), Germany (up 3.4%) and France (up 4%).
Travel and tourism will top category growth, up 8.1% as tourism continues to profit from a post-pandemic rebound. Media and entertainment is predicted to grow 6.5% because the proliferation of content and streaming services continues.
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