2024 online holiday spending set for record year with $240 billion in sales

U.S. online holiday shoppers are expected to spend $240.8 billion in November and December this year, based on a forecast by Adobe. This represents a 8.4% increase over last year’s holiday season, significantly higher than last year’s 4.9% year-over-year growth.

Why we care. This is sweet news for retailers with a solid digital marketing strategy. In recent years, holiday spending has shifted to early sales events like October’s Amazon Prime Big Deal Days — this year, running October 8 and 9. Also, a segment of consumers spread their gift-buying throughout your complete year. Understanding where their customers fit in these trends will help a business make probably the most out of the holiday push.

Mobile shopping. The anticipated record-breaking spending can even lift mobile shopping into uncharted territory. Mobile purchases are expected to succeed in $128.1 billion this year, up 12.8% YoY. This means mobile can have a 53.2% share of online shopping versus desktops and laptops.

Cyber Week. Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, is set to drive $40.6 billion in U.S. sales, based on Adobe. This is a 7% increase over 2023.

“The holiday shopping season has been reshaped in recent years, where consumers are making purchases earlier, driven by a stream of discounts that has allowed shoppers to administer their budgets in alternative ways,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst, Adobe Digital Insights, in a release.

Expensive goods. In analyzing consumer patterns during the last five years, Adobe found sales of the most affordable goods increased 46%, while sales of the most costly goods declined 47%. (Adobe divided goods into 4 price tiers.)

This year, Adobe expects the trend to reverse. Sales of the most costly goods are expected to extend by 19% this holiday season, in comparison with pre-holiday sales. This is due to price discounts, not because shoppers are feeling wealthier.

“These discounting patterns are driving material changes in shopping behavior, with certain consumers now trading as much as goods that were previously higher-priced and propelling growth for U.S. retailers,” said Pandya.

Last-minute vs. planning ahead for holidays. Higher-income customers are probably to spend for holidays in the 2 months preceding a holiday, based on Klaviyo’s survey of over 8,000 consumers globally. Consumers with incomes under $100,000 are more likely than other brackets to buy for holidays last minute, but are also more more likely to do holiday shopping throughout the year.

Here’s the total breakdown of when consumers spend by income level:

*Image: Klaviyo’s 2024 Consumer Spending Report.*

Plans to spend more. Eight in 10 consumers said they planned to spend as much or greater than last year. Nineteen percent of consumers said they’d spend more, and 61% said they’d spend the identical. Only 20% said they’d spend less.

Less than half (48%) of consumers said inflation affects their current spending decisions.

Top aspects. Pricing was the highest factor in holiday spending. Here is how other considerations ranked in the Klaviyo survey.

Shopping by generation. The same percentage (34%) of Gen Z and Baby Boomer shoppers plan to buy online and in-store. The differences between generations lie in the disparities among the many other two-thirds.

Over half (53%) of Gen Z will do most or all of their shopping online, while only 25% of Boomers will. Here’s how shopping behaviors break down by generations: