The clock is racing against TikTok as the Supreme Court weighs whether to uphold a law that would ban the app in the united stateson Sunday. The ban would cause significant disruption for marketers, difficult them to redistribute billions of ad dollars, and adds fuel to what’s already shaping as much as be a chaotic yr for social media.
As marketers weigh next steps if the ban goes through, Meta’s recent moves to step back its content moderation efforts could possibly be a consider their media-buying decisions. The upshot of the recent social media tumult is that a lot of ad dollars could possibly be in play this yr.
“Social media is all the time a highly dynamic space. I might say the flavour and form of change often varies from season to season,” said Scott Sutton, CEO of influencer marketing platform Later. “Right now, there are huge catalyzing moments in political shifts, each through the election and thru the TikTok ban, which can be form of shaping a lot of where the ecosystem goes.”
TikTok and its China-based owner ByteDance went before the Supreme Court on Jan. 10 to argue against a law signed by President Joe Biden that may ban the social media platform within the U.S. on Jan. 19, a day before the inauguration of the second Trump administration, unless it’s sold to U.S. ownership. Lawyers from the corporate maintained that a ban would infringe upon rights protected by the First Amendment, nevertheless, that argument doesn’t appear to have had much sway against the federal government’s ongoing national security concerns.
The Supreme Court could come to a decision on TikTok’s fate at any moment, though the most recent reports as of press time indicate that the platform is now preparing to shut itself down within the U.S. on Sunday unless government intervention permits it to stay. The ban would impact 170 million U.S. users and tens of millions of content creators. It would also put a halt to a platform that has offered brands a powerful connection to the younger generation, a reality that has begun to set in as advertisers grow serious about identifying their next steps.
“Previously, after we had surveyed CMOs and marketers and asked about their plans around TikTok, and this was earlier [in 2024], they were saying they were spending more on TikTok, not less,” said Kelsey Chickering, principal analyst at Forrester. “Now … I feel the sentiment is contingency planning, fascinated by where those media dollars can go as a substitute.”
Though there are some obvious contenders to receive redistributed TikTok ad dollars, other shakeups at giants like Meta could make these decisions even harder. Meanwhile, dollars spent on TikTok for commerce could have trouble translating. Ultimately, the looming ban yields a harsh lesson to brands on flexibility, the worth of a diversified media mix and the importance of understanding the behavior of goal audiences.
Redistributed funds
During last week’s Supreme Court hearing, Noel Francisco, an attorney for TikTok and ByteDance, argued that the platform would go “dark” on Jan. 19 if the ban is upheld. The ban would make it illegal for app stores like Google and Apple’s to distribute or offer updates for TikTok. Under the law, current users could still open TikTok on their phones, nevertheless, without updates, the app would slowly change into unusable.
If the ban is upheld and the app functions for current users after Sunday, a continued presence on TikTok from brands to tie up any loose ends could still be helpful, Sutton explained.
“I do think when you’re on the very end of a campaign, you’ve already deployed ad dollars, likely there’ll still be a healthy user base and audience there to receive the message unless there’s more aggressive motion taken by the federal government,” Sutton said.
Whether TikTok will remain usable is unclear. Sources aware of TikTok’s plans have confirmed that the ByteDance app plans to abruptly switch off the app on Sunday barring any government intervention, The Information first reported. Under that plan, current users of the app who try and open it is going to be redirected to a website with information in regards to the ban.
TikTok ban talks come as social media continues to grow as an promoting channel. Social media ad spending within the U.S. is anticipated to top $82 billion in 2025, up from $75 billion the yr prior. While TikTok’s impact on that total is important — U.S. ad revenue for the platform amounted to around $8 billion last yr, per estimates from Madison and Wall — it’s likely that this yr’s spending projection would remain similar, with dollars that after went into TikTok being sent to Meta and Google, Chickering said. However, dollars spent on TikTok for commerce, particularly through TikTok Shop, may not transfer as easily.
“Because TikTok has been so strong in that area, it would mean that a few of those dollars return into traditional performance marketing or search to support commerce efforts,” she said.
In predicting which platforms have essentially the most to achieve from a ban, Madison and Wall anticipates that 30% to 40% of spend would go each to Google, primarily for YouTube, and Meta, 10% to twenty% to Snap and around 10% to twenty% to other platforms. Regardless of where the ad dollars go, brand marketers’ give attention to the form of influencers who’ve helped propel brands on TikTok isn’t expected to take a hit, said Zarina Stanford, CMO at Bazaarvoice.
“I feel no matter whether the TikTok ban goes to occur or not, that investment pool, when you will, is already increasing and that increase goes to proceed,” said Stanford.
Life without a ban
TikTok has repeatedly found itself in political crosshairs because it emerged within the U.S., including through a previous ban attempt in 2020, during Trump’s first administration. Trump has since reversed his stance. TikTok’s most up-to-date ban attempt gained steam last spring when the ban bill, the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, hurried through the House and Senate before being signed into law by President Biden.
TikTok and ByteDance in May sued the U.S. federal government over the law, nevertheless it was upheld by a federal appeals court in December. Some have expressed interest in buying the app. A gaggle of U.S. investors including billionaire Frank McCourt, and, reportedly, X-owner Elon Musk are amongst essentially the most notable, though TikTok has said its divestment from ByteDance is “impossible.”
“What that is forcing everyone to do is understand and own their audience more, and have the opportunity to assist engage with them directly and realize that the social network may not all the time be the conduit with which you communicate most effectively together with your audience.”
Trump’s team has also pushed to increase the deadline on the Supreme Court’s decision until after he’s sworn into office on Jan. 20, though no extension has been granted yet. While the ban being instated on Jan. 19 seems likely, there’s also the likelihood that it falls through, whether through means like an extension, a divestment or a total strike down on the premise of the First Amendment. If the ban fails, TikTok would likely proceed its upward trajectory, Chickering said.
“I feel advertisers will proceed to advertise more, I feel creators will proceed making content on these platforms and to a point we’ll return to business as usual, but without the loom of a ban,” Chickering said. “We might even see more dollars unlocked from brands who have not even spent yet on TikTok.”
The decision would also live as a reminder for brands and creators on the importance of diversifying their content and platform presence, said Ed East, founder and group CEO of Billion Dollar Boy, in emailed comments.
“This will help creators and types prepare for unexpected platform changes which we all know are inevitable in such a dynamic and growing industry,” East said.
Social media chaos demands flexibility
As marketers strategize which platforms they are going to shift their dollars to, other actions across the social landscape could add to the turbulence. Meta earlier this month announced that it’s discontinuing its fact-checking program and moving to a Community Notes system much like that on X for clarifying claims made by users. The company also ended its diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs.
These moves, which many view as an effort to appease the Trump administration, are likely a response to a larger shift within the political landscape, Later’s Sutton explained. While some speculate that the shakeup could impact Meta’s ad business, it could possibly be hard to inform.
“It’s interesting because when you did have a pullback because of this, it might probably be overshadowed by a shift of dollars from a TikTok ban, assuming that scenario goes through,” Sutton said.
It’s also value noting that while Meta’s moves harken to those made under Musk’s ownership of X, the latter app amasses a fraction of Meta’s audience, making it less helpful for many.
“It’s form of a perfect storm of comments and changes from each the Meta and the TikTok side, but on the Meta side … the truth is that Meta isn’t X. It’s a much stronger paid media platform than X has ever been,” Chickering said. “I feel it was pretty easy for advertisers to go away X and form of take a stand, but the identical wouldn’t be true for Meta.”
As marketers weigh their options, the looming decision could bring into sharper focus the importance of understanding goal audiences on a level deeper than insights gleaned from anybody platform, Sutton explained.
“What that is forcing everyone to do is understand and own their audience more, and have the opportunity to assist engage with them directly and realize that the social network may not all the time be the conduit with which you communicate most effectively together with your audience,” Sutton said.
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