U.S. consumers are expected to spend a record $253.4 billion online this holiday season, according to Adobe’s annual shopping forecast, released today. That’s a 5.3% year-over-year increase covering the period from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, 2025.
Adobe’s evaluation, based on over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites and 100 million SKUs across 18 categories, suggests that this 12 months’s season can be shaped by the dominance of mobile shopping, flexible payment options and the growing influence of generative AI and social platforms on consumer behavior.
Cyber Week to drive nearly a fifth of spend: Adobe expects 10 separate days where online spending will top $5 billion. Cyber Week—the five-day stretch from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday—will account for $43.7 billion, or 17.2% of the season’s total, up 6.3% YoY.
- Cyber Monday stays the only biggest day at $14.2 billion (+6.3% YoY).
- Black Friday is forecast to grow faster, up 8.3% YoY to $11.7 billion.
- Thanksgiving Day spending will hit $6.4 billion (+4.9% YoY).
Mobile overtakes desktop shopping: For the primary time, mobile devices will drive the vast majority of online holiday spend, capturing 56.1% ($142.7 billion). That’s up 8.5% YoY and a dramatic shift from 2020, when mobile accounted for just 40% of holiday ecommerce.
Buy Now, Pay Later expands share: Consumers proceed to embrace Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) for budget flexibility. Adobe projects BNPL purchases to reach $20.2 billion this season (+11% YoY), including greater than $1 billion on Cyber Monday alone. Notably, nearly 80% of BNPL transactions are expected to come from mobile devices.
Discounting drives higher-ticket purchases: Discounting will remain aggressive, with deals peaking during Cyber Week:
- Electronics: up to 28% off
- Toys: 27%
- Apparel: 25%
Adobe notes a “trade-up effect,” with shoppers using discounts to purchase higher-end items. The share of units sold from premium products is expected to jump in sporting goods (+56%), electronics (+52%), and appliances (+39%).
Electronics, apparel, and residential goods lead: More than half of all online spending can be concentrated in three categories:
- Electronics: $57.5B (+4% YoY)
- Apparel: $47.6B (+4.4% YoY)
- Furniture: $31.1B (+6.5% YoY)
Smaller but fast-growing categories include groceries (+9.2% YoY) and cosmetics (+9.1% YoY).
Adobe also projects surging demand for home improvement, health tech and gaming. Sales of activity trackers are expected to rise 1,055%, smartwatches 950% and gaming consoles 1,040% versus baseline spending earlier this 12 months.
Hot sellers include the Nintendo Switch 2, PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X, iPhone 17, Google Pixel 10, Dyson Airwrap Multi Styler and trending toys like Disney Stitch Puppetronic and Labubu Dolls.
AI and social media reshape discovery: Adobe highlights two significant shifts in how consumers are finding products:
- Generative AI traffic to retail sites is forecast to rise 520% YoY, following a 1,300% surge last 12 months. Shoppers are turning to AI tools for research (53%), product recommendations (40%), deal-finding (36%) and gift inspiration (30%).
- Social media influence on ecommerce is expected to jump 51% YoY, with affiliate and influencer-driven sales also growing 14%.
The bottom line
Adobe’s forecast underscores the continued strength of U.S. ecommerce and signals how consumer behavior is shifting toward mobile-first, AI-assisted,and socially influenced shopping. While aggressive discounting will fuel sales, the larger story could also be how emerging technologies shape the trail to purchase in the course of the 2025 holiday season.
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