“Sociable” is the most recent commentary on essential social media developments and trends from industry expert Andrew Hutchinson of Social Media Today.
So what comes next with the TikTok sell-off?
Earlier today, U.S. President Joe Biden signed the proposed TikTok sell-off bill into law, meaning that TikTok now has 270 days to be sold to a U.S.-based owner, or be banned within the nation. TikTok has vowed to fight the bill within the courts, with TikTok CEO Shou Xi Chew labeling it an unconstitutional attack on the app.
But is it, and what are TikTok’s probabilities of winning a court battle to take care of its Chinese ownership?
Here’s a take a look at some of the questions across the TikTok ban.
Could TikTok defeat the bill via legal means?
Despite this coming from the desk of the U.S. President, as noted by Chew, TikTok’s confident that it can find a way to defeat the bill in court, by arguing that the proposal is fundamentally unconstitutional.
As per TikTok:
“We imagine the facts and the law are clearly on our side, and we’ll ultimately prevail. The fact is, we have now invested billions of dollars to maintain U.S. data secure and our platform free from outside influence and manipulation.”
As outlined in Platformer (which has a superb rundown of the possible outcomes of TikTok’s legal options), the federal government will most probably seek to defend the bill on national security grounds, which would offer the federal government with broader powers above and beyond the technicalities that TikTok may seek to spotlight.
The evidence around data misuse and manipulation will not be enough to persuade the court of their case, but under the national security banner, it does seem more likely that the bill will delay under scrutiny.
So TikTok could challenge, and potentially defeat it within the courts. But it does seem to be that won’t ultimately be a pathway to maintaining the situation as is.
How long till TikTok is shut down within the U.S.?
Under the bill, TikTok will now have 270 days to divest, though there’s also an extra provision which could see TikTok apply for an additional three months under certain conditions (e.g. if it’s negotiating with buyers and desires more time to finalize the deal).
So a 12 months, TikTok has a 12 months until it either must be in U.S. ownership or it’s gone.
So it’s not going to vanish tomorrow, and there’s still plenty of time for the related parties to work out another end result for the app.
The most important catch here, which could prevent any sell-off happening, is that the Chinese government has vowed to oppose the sell-off push.
So even when TikTok can find a possible partner it likes, it could not find a way to enact a sale either way.
Which corporations might look to purchase TikTok?
I saw someone suggest that Meta might be seeking to buy TikTok whether it is put up for sale.
Like, no, Meta’s not going to purchase TikTok. I mean, the FTC continues to be attempting to force Meta to divest WhatsApp and Instagram, on the idea that it gives them an unfair advantage within the digital ads market. There’s no way that Meta can be allowed to purchase TikTok, even when it desired to.
Based on the previous TikTok sweepstakes, which was sparked by former President Donald Trump attempting to force the app into U.S. ownership in 2020, the highest candidates, at that stage, were Oracle, Microsoft, Walmart, and Triller.
Oracle would likely still have an interest in acquiring the app, and it’s been heavily involved in TikTok’s “Project Texas,” which was designed to deal with concerns about U.S. user data being sent to China. Microsoft’s probably out of the running, given its massive investment in OpenAI, and its broader shift towards AI projects, and Walmart was only a partial bidder, and certain wouldn’t be seeking to make a bid, no less than not by itself. It also seems unlikely that Triller can be able to make a bid.
Last month, reports circulated that former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was putting together an investor group to make a bid for the app, while former Activision CEO Bobby Kotick has also expressed an interest.
A key provision, nevertheless, can be the inclusion of TikTok’s algorithm code, which current owner ByteDance will likely be reluctant to incorporate in any sale. Indeed, it could not even find a way to, provided that China’s cybersecurity rules include provisions that will restrict the sale of such.
TikTok’s algorithm is its true secret sauce, and if it’s not part of the deal, the asking price might be significantly reduced, and the sphere of potential suitors may also shrink.
Will other nations now also look to ban the app?
This is a significant concern for TikTok, that other nations will now also follow the U.S. lead, and implement similar rulings.
Theoretically, if TikTok does find yourself being sold to a U.S. company, most Western nations would seemingly be okay with their user data also being stored within the U.S., as that’s the present situation with every other social app. But EU officials have also been pushing for European user data to be kept in Europe, just like the U.S.
The closest precedent here is the bans of TikTok on government devices, which have spread through Western nations over the past few years. Once one nation looks to enact restrictions, others follow suit. Which is sensible, since they’re all acting on the identical cybersecurity advice, nevertheless it could also indicate that other nations may look to implement similar restrictions on TikTok, unless it does institute clear delineation between itself and its Chinese homeland.
Essentially, this might find yourself being a domino effect, which can see TikTok face more bans, in additional regions, in consequence.
Should we reduce our concentrate on TikTok?
This one’s really hard to reply, because while TikTok is facing a possible ban, given the cash at stake, you’ll assume that, by some means, someway, an agreement might be enacted to maintain the app running within the U.S.
Having a diversified digital strategy is at all times essential, and the discussion here once more highlights the importance of not putting all of your eggs in a single basket. But at this stage, I wouldn’t say that you need to be moving away from TikTok as such, but that you almost certainly needs to be considering the way you’re using other platforms at the identical time.
Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts might be essentially the most obvious beneficiaries, and given their similarities to TikTok, they seem to be the perfect alternatives to think about, even when only through re-posting and constructing a presence. Snapchat Spotlight is also a consideration, depending in your audience.
But yes, you need to be considering alternatives, though it’s best to at all times be exploring such either way.
—
There’s still lots more to are available in the TikTok divestment push, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this becomes an even bigger point of contention between the U.S. and China, because the battle continues for the app.
Which is amazing to think about. At the core of diplomatic relations between two global superpowers is an app that’s primarily focused on light-hearted dance clips.
Wild times.
Read the total article here
