Disclosure: Informa, which owns a controlling stake in Informa TechTarget, the publisher behind Marketing Dive, can be invested in Ascential, of which WARC is a component. Informa has no influence over Marketing Dive’s coverage.
- TikTok ad revenue could hit $32.4 billion in 2025, a 24.5% year-over-year growth, if the U.S. doesn’t proceed with its plans to ban the app. This represents 11% of social spend as a complete for 2025, in keeping with WARC Media data shared with Marketing Dive.
- The U.S. is TikTok’s largest market and nearly $12 billion in revenue for the app is at stake if the social video platform is banned. However, ad revenue growth for the remainder of the world is outpacing ad revenue from the U.S., potentially minimizing among the damage from a ban, in keeping with the info.
- Meta stands to profit essentially the most from a ban, as the corporate is predicted to catch most advertiser dollars spent on TikTok. WARC predicts 40% of the cash will funnel into Instagram while 15% will funnel into Facebook.
Despite the sell-off deadline of April 6 fast approaching, there remains to be a significant sense of uncertainty for marketers as TikTok hasn’t negotiated with potential buyers. However, President Donald Trump indicated he’ll more than likely provide an extension for TikTok if a deal isn’t reached by then. Additionally, the administration has indicated it is in talks with 4 groups concerning the potential sale.
TikTok stands to lose billions of dollars in ad revenue if a U.S. ban is enacted, in keeping with a WARC report. The money would likely trickle down into American corporations, comparable to Google and Meta. If TikTok does go dark permanently within the U.S., Meta is predicted to soak up 55% of its ad spend. Platforms with short-form video options, comparable to YouTube and Instagram, stand to profit essentially the most.
While the U.S. stays the biggest market for the app, the country’s share of total ad revenue for the platform has steadily declined over the past five years. By 2026, the U.S. is predicted to make up 34% of TikTok’s ad revenue, down from 43.3% in 2022. However, if a ban is avoided the app is predicted to earn $13.4 billion in ad revenue from the U.S. in 2026.
TikTok is the fifth hottest app globally, jumping to the second hottest app when just considering women between the ages of 16 and 24. Its ad reach is predicted to be 1.59 billion users, with users globally averaging 35 hours a month on the app. U.S. users spend a mean 44 hours monthly on the app, exceeding the worldwide average. This far exceeds the monthly usage of other platforms and is greater than double the common usage of Instagram.
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