Sociable: Assessing possible outcomes for TikTok in its final days in the US

So where are we at with TikTok and what’s coming next for the Chinese short video app?

Well, apparently, happening official reports as of at once, TikTok will likely be faraway from the U.S., with the Senate-approved sell-off bill going into effect on Jan. 19, which is Sunday.

But there are rumors of varied potential scenarios that might keep TikTok going, yet, with only days remaining, how possible any of those alternatives are stays to be seen.

Here’s an summary of the current options which might be reportedly on the table for TikTok in the U.S.

Scenario 1: TikTok is banned in the U.S. as of Sunday

As noted, the more than likely scenario, based on publicly available information to this point, is that the TikTok sell-off bill will likely be enacted, as originally planned, on Sunday.

When that happens, it was initially expected that TikTok would remain available via the downloaded apps on people’s phones, and that functionally, U.S. users would still have the ability to access the app for a time, though recent downloads could be immediately cut off.

But TikTok is seemingly planning to chop off U.S. users entirely if/when the bill goes into effect, with a redirect in place that sends them to an evidence as to why the app has been made inaccessible.

TikTok’s also constructing in a contingency that might enable it to change the app back on quickly, if the bill might be reversed at a later stage.

But at once a minimum of, that does look like the more than likely end result, that TikTok will go dark for U.S. users, a minimum of for a time period, as a consequence of other options failing to succeed in approval.

Scenario 2: Trump saves the app

Incoming President Donald Trump has repeatedly noted that he wants to avoid wasting the app, on which he now has thousands and thousands of followers. Trump found recent value in TikTok in his recent presidential campaign, and due to this fact has more of a connection to the app and more impetus to try to put it aside.

But his avenues for doing so are limited.

That’s very true because he’s not in power as yet and won’t be inaugurated till the day after the TikTok sell-off bill goes into effect. As such, Trump has sought to delay any decision on TikTok till after he takes the oath of office, but that application hasn’t been approved by the Supreme Court as yet.

The court itself continues to be hearing TikTok’s appeal against the bill, which can also find that TikTok has a case, and delay the implementation of the act. But all indications are that the court will uphold the original bill as approved by Senators last yr.

The most up-to-date reports have suggested that Trump could issue an executive order that might direct agencies to not implement the TikTok ban, effectively nullifying the approved bill. But again, he couldn’t do this till after the ban takes effect.

Essentially, there are limited avenues for Trump to take and so they’re all fairly drastic. And none of them will stop the TikTok ban going into effect, a minimum of initially.

But it is usually price noting that TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew is planning to attend Trump’s inauguration ceremony next week. That could suggest that there’s some partnership brewing to reinforce TikTok’s possibilities of either staying or coming back.

Scenario 3: A U.S.-based buyer takes over

Another possible end result is that a U.S.-based buyer might be found for the app, though this also seems unlikely given the short turnaround time for such.

TikTok has repeatedly noted that the deadline is simply too short to rearrange a sale, and that was when it had 270 days. So the likelihood of it having the ability to organize a sale inside its remaining hours seems slim.

Still, reports have indicated that:

So there are, a minimum of in theory, options available that might keep TikTok in the U.S., if ByteDance and the Chinese government looked to maneuver forward with a sale.

A key proviso, nonetheless, is also that Chinese authorities have committed to not selling TikTok’s all-powerful algorithm, which might significantly impact the value of the platform.

Without that, it’s not clear what a separate U.S. TikTok could be, even when a sale might be arranged in time.

Scenario 4: Biden saves TikTok

In considered one of the more strange turns in the TikTok sell-off push, Biden administration officials are actually also apparently looking into how one can save the app in the U.S., despite approving the original sell-off bill.

According to reports, the Biden team is looking for alternatives to maintain the app running for Americans and has said that users “shouldn’t expect to see TikTok suddenly banned on Sunday.”

So, cool, I assume. Biden and Co., who signed off on the deal, are actually pledging to disregard it.

I don’t know, seems strange, but perhaps that’s one other possibility. Maybe Biden’s team will look to increase the deadline for the bill into Trump’s term, thereby giving Trump more time to barter another.

On balance, nonetheless, the more than likely end result, again, appears to be a suspension of TikTok in the U.S., with the app to potentially return at a later date. It does look like Trump will make it something of a priority to get it up and running again, nevertheless it might not be possible to halt the current sell-off push entirely.

But nonetheless, there are alternatives, and all of this may occasionally amount to nothing, and TikTok could find yourself rolling on, unaffected, despite the months of Senate hearings and legal wrangling.

Which would look like an expensive exercise in the futility of bureaucracy, but perhaps, that’s what we’ll get.