Global ad spend to rise faster than expected amid digital boom: WARC

• Global ad spending will likely be more robust than previously anticipated in 2025, with full-year growth now expected to increase 7.4% to $1.17 trillion, according to a Q3 update from WARC. 
• The upward revision, the primary WARC has issued in over a yr, marks a 1.2 percentage-point jump from prior estimates published in June. Driving momentum are digital-first ad platforms, which is able to snap up nine in 10 dollars of incremental market growth, and what WARC described as a “pre-tariff windfall.” 
• Social media is attracting a plurality of latest ad dollars at 40.6% market share, while non-retail search and retail media will take up 22.2% and 21.5% of spend, respectively. Just three corporations — Google owner Alphabet, Amazon and Meta — are positioned to take over half (55.8%) of world ad spend this yr, excluding China. 

As other industry watchers slash their ad-spending outlooks for 2025, WARC foresees more robust growth than anticipated just a couple of months ago. The researcher’s Q3 report, which takes a worldwide versus U.S.-specific view, highlights how the digital triopoly of Amazon, Google and Meta continues to entrench its dominance amid a period of deep economic uncertainty. The findings also indicate that marketers enacted a blitz of activity within the second quarter, a “pre-tariff” period where many brands rushed to stockpile inventory and promote value ahead of expected price hikes. 

On the latter point, social media spending spiked 20.2% yr over yr in Q2, well above prior projections of 12.4% growth and the equivalent of about $4.9 billion in additional value. WARC tracked “sharp” increases in spending from retailers on social media in Q2, with the category pouring more dollars into Meta-owned Instagram (18.8% growth) and TikTok (56.8% growth), whose future within the U.S. continues to be being sorted out. Retail is now the most important category on each of those platforms, per WARC monitoring assisted by Nielsen. Technology and consumer electronics, other verticals vulnerable to tariffs, recorded notable lifts in spending on those sites as well. 

“Despite economic headwinds, including disruption to global trade and reduced purchasing power amongst consumers, brands are doubling down on Meta, Alphabet and Amazon, while emerging players like TikTok are growing fast but from smaller bases,” said James McDonald, director of information, intelligence and forecasting at WARC, in an announcement. “The global market is about to nearly double in value because the pandemic, underscoring the resilience of promoting in a tougher economic climate.”

Retail media is on the right track to grow 13.7% in 2025, achieving $175 billion in spend, or a 14.9% share of the overall global market. Like other pockets of digital, just a couple of corporations loom large in retail media, with Amazon primed to account for over a 3rd (35.4%) of its promoting pie. That said, retail media’s upward climb is about for a “marked slowdown,” with a mean rate of growth of 12.6% over the following few years.

By contrast, traditional media channels, including newspapers, broadcast TV and radio, remain on the wane. A giant upshot from WARC is that digital has firmly entrenched itself because the leading promoting engine within the post-pandemic world despite repeated matches of macro volatility. The firm estimates that the nominal value of the worldwide ad market will effectively double by 2027 compared to 2020 figures, reaching about $1.36 trillion.

Not everyone seems to be as optimistic about 2025’s prospects because the impact of tariffs are more strongly felt by brands. U.S. automotive and retail spending on digital ads is sharply retreating due to the trade war, eMarketer said in a report published earlier this week that somewhat conflicts with WARC’s assessment. Total digital spending within the U.S. is forecast to grow 9.5% YoY to $338.27 billion, per eMarketer, a revision two percentage points lower than earlier estimates.